In the wake of President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance, concerns about his viability for re-election have surged dramatically, prompting intense speculation on platforms like Polymarket. The crypto betting site has seen unprecedented activity, reflecting growing doubts about Biden’s ability to sustain his candidacy for the 2024 presidential race.
During the debate, Biden’s performance left many voters questioning his capacity to secure another term. At 81 years old, Biden seemed to struggle with articulation, occasionally slurring his speech, and engaging in a peculiar discussion with Trump about golfing abilities. In contrast, Trump, despite evident falsehoods, maintained composure, emphasizing critical issues such as immigration and foreign policy, thereby underscoring Biden’s perceived missteps.
Post-debate adjustments on Polymarket have been striking. The odds of Biden withdrawing from the race before November surged from 19% to 41%, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment. Concurrently, Biden’s prospects for re-election plummeted from 34% to 21%. Conversely, odds for alternative Democratic candidates like Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama have gained traction.
A subsequent CBS News and YouGov poll starkly illustrated Biden’s dwindling support among registered voters, with only 28% backing his candidacy, while a resounding 72% opposed his pursuit of the presidency.
The perceptible decline in public favor has not escaped notice, with influential voices, including the New York Times editorial board, suggesting that Biden should step aside in favor of a more robust Democratic contender.
While cryptocurrency was notably absent from the debate, its prominence as a campaign issue has grown. Trump has openly endorsed digital assets, accepting crypto donations, in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s stance on regulatory policies, a divergence highlighted by analyst Edward Wilson of Nansen.
Amidst this political tumult, Polymarket has reached a significant milestone, surpassing $100 million in monthly trading volume in June alone. This surge underscores the platform’s pivotal role in the election betting landscape, with the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market attracting bets totaling $204.9 million. Trump currently leads with 63% odds of winning, backed by $24.7 million in bets.
Notably, bets on Biden’s potential withdrawal have surged, with the market for “Biden drops out of presidential race” now at 43% in favor of “Yes” bets, while the odds for “Biden drops out by July 4” stand at 5%.
In the past 30 days, Polymarket’s total value locked has risen by nearly 69%, underscoring its growing influence across various betting markets, from cryptocurrency prices to the UEFA European Football Championship 2024.
