Crypto strategist Smith’s Analysis
Crypto strategist Smith said Pepe (PEPE) is repeating a 25-day breakout formation that has previously triggered large rallies. He forecast a rise of 160% to retest its all-time high and up to 300% if momentum extends. Smith explained that the pattern depends on PEPE holding support near $0.0000100. He noted that a decisive drop below this level would invalidate the bullish setup and expose the token to further declines.
Another Analyst’s Ambitious Outlook
Another crypto analyst CryptoELITES presented an even more ambitious outlook, projecting a 40x rally during the current bull cycle. He based his call on PEPE’s series of rounded bottoms within an ascending channel. This pattern, where price steadily trends upward between parallel support and resistance lines, has historically preceded parabolic moves in high-risk tokens. He said a breakout above resistance, backed by strong trading volume, could launch PEPE toward unprecedented highs.
At 40x from today’s levels, PEPE would trade near $0.0004000 — a level that would push its market capitalization well above Shiba Inu’s $40 billion peak in 2021 and close to Dogecoin’s $88 billion peak that same year.
Technical Indicators Test Analyst Forecasts
As of the press time, PEPE to USD is trading near $0.0000105, just above strong support at $0.0000100. This level has been tested several times in July and August and has consistently held, making it a key zone for buyers. Breaking below it would signal a breakdown of Smith’s pattern.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 37. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Levels below 30 are oversold, while above 70 are overbought. At 37, PEPE is close to oversold conditions, suggesting limited downside and potential for a rebound. This supports Smith’s view that the token could rally if demand picks up.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. This indicator compares two moving averages to identify trend direction. A negative reading signals weak momentum. A bullish crossover, where the MACD line rises above the signal line, would be required to confirm a breakout.
The 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, currently between $0.0000114 and $0.0000123, act as strong resistance. PEPE has failed to close above these levels in the past month. Clearing them with high trading volume would validate the bullish pattern Smith described.
MVRV and Exchange Flows Signal Profit-Taking Risk Amid PEPE Accumulation
Santiment data shows the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at 15.6% as of this week. The MVRV compares the market value of PEPE to the average price holders paid. When the ratio rises above 20–25%, holders often sell to secure profits, historically leading to price pullbacks. With MVRV approaching that threshold, the risk of profit-taking could limit upside.
Exchange flows show a similar balance of pressures. IntoTheBlock reports a 113% decline in net inflows over the past seven days, showing more tokens have left exchanges than entered. Outflows reduce immediate selling pressure, often supporting upward moves. Yet Binance reported $182 million in 24-hour spot volume and $9.49 million in net inflows, suggesting some traders are moving tokens onto exchanges to sell into potential rallies.
Pepe Coin’s Rising Active Addresses Strengthen the Bullish Case
At the same time, network activity has strengthened. Santiment data shows 30-day active addresses rising toward 68,000, with about 3,300 daily active wallets. More active wallets suggest stronger organic demand, supporting CryptoELITES’ view that accumulation is building inside the ascending channel.
Meme coins like PEPE typically mirror the direction of larger assets. Bitcoin fell 2.18% on Friday to $115,444, while Ethereum dropped 4% to $3,643. If BTC and ETH remain under pressure, it could cap any breakout attempt by PEPE, regardless of its on-chain strength.
Smith’s projection of up to 300% gains has partial support from the RSI’s near-oversold reading, declining exchange inflows, and rising network activity. If PEPE breaks above the EMA resistance cluster, it could test Fibonacci targets at $0.0000200–$0.0000280.
CryptoELITES’ 40x call remains highly speculative. Reaching $0.0004000 would require PEPE’s market capitalization to multiply many times over, surpassing the historical peaks of larger meme coins. With the MACD still negative and broader market momentum weak, such a target appears far from achievable under current conditions.