YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com)
A fake Vatican announcement triggered a sharp rise in Polymarket’s “Next Pope” prediction market. Total bets on the platform reached $6.4 million after a viral post falsely claimed the Catholic Church would excommunicate users wagering on the papal election.
The post appeared on X on April 21 and was shared by user Yoxic, who has more than 240,000 followers. It looked like an official Church document, criticizing Polymarket for turning the papal election into a speculative event. The message called the election a “sacred process” and condemned bets on platforms like Polymarket.
However, the Vatican never released such a notice. The document lacked the Church’s formal language and formatting. It also named Polymarket directly, which is not common in actual Church communications. Still, the hoax went viral and drew attention to the betting platform.
Polymarket Volume Surged 160% in Three Days
On April 21, the screenshot in the fake post showed $2.5 million in total volume on Polymarket’s “Next Pope” market. By April 25, that number had risen to $6.74 million, according to Polymarket data. This marks an increase of approximately 169.6% over four days.
Polymarket opened the “Next Pope” market in February 2025, ahead of Pope Francis’ death. Interest had already been rising, but the viral fake notice significantly boosted activity and attention to the market.
The prediction market allows users to bet on real-world outcomes using USDC. However, the platform did not comment publicly on the impact of the fake Vatican notice. Despite that, the platform’s data showed a sharp rise in traffic and wagers tied to the papal election.
Catholic Church Has Not Addressed Polymarket Bet Activity
There is no indication the Vatican is monitoring Polymarket or other crypto platforms during the Conclave. The Church has rarely commented on crypto use. A few local parishes in the U.S. accepted Bitcoin donations in past years, but the broader Church has stayed silent on Web3 or blockchain issues.
The viral quote from the fake notice stated:
“The Holy See deplores the reduction of the solemn conclave to a mere speculative exercise on platforms such as Polymarket and urges the faithful to uphold the dignity of the papal election as a matter of prayerful discernment rather than profit.”
This quote was falsely attributed to the Church and widely circulated. Still, the Church has not responded to the post or its influence on betting trends.
Polymarket Becomes One of the Most Active Platforms for Papal Bets
As of April 24, the “Next Pope” market remains one of the most active listings on Polymarket, with over $6.7 million in total volume. Wagering continues as users speculate on who will lead the Catholic Church following Pope Francis’ death.
Pietro Parolin leads the field with 29% odds and over $328,000 in volume. He is followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at 22%, with the highest individual market volume of $486,644. Other contenders include Matteo Zuppi (12%), Peter Turkson (11%), and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (8%). Each of these candidates has drawn between $260,000 and $290,000 in wagers.
Lower-tier entries like Péter Erdő and Robert Sarah each hold a 5% share, while Mario Grech and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu trail behind at 2% and 1%, respectively.
The surge in bets reflects how global religious events now appear on decentralized platforms. Polymarket, known for markets on political and cultural issues, is now hosting one of its highest-volume events based on a papal outcome. While many of its markets cover elections or global incidents, the papal race stands out due to its spiritual and institutional significance.
The fake Vatican post that circulated earlier included a screenshot of internal data not typically made public. It showed wager totals before the recent surge and exposed specific platform figures, possibly from restricted or scraped sources. Polymarket has not commented on the origin of that data.
The platform has not suspended the market and continues to accept active bets. The listing remains open as conclave speculation continues.