NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)—
Bitcoin may be approaching the peak of its current bull cycle, with long-term indicators and expert commentary pointing to a high-risk, high-reward phase in the market.
According to Crypto Dan, a crypto market commentator, Bitcoin hit a critical midpoint of its bull cycle in March. Citing the ratio of BTC volume traded over a 6–12-month period, Dan argued the indicator has historically followed a two-stage decline pattern: the first marks the end of early bullish momentum, and the second—usually deeper—signals the end of the entire cycle.
Dan stated, “This ratio already saw its first leg down and seems on track for a second decline.” That historical structure now puts Bitcoin closer to the peak, rather than the beginning, of the bull run.
RSI, Wedge Breakout Point to Critical Technical Setup
Captain Faibik, a crypto chart analyst, flagged a falling wedge on Bitcoin’s daily chart and suggested bulls may soon regain control.
“Bitcoin is very close to breaking out of a falling wedge pattern,” he posted on X. He added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was testing a major trendline, hinting at a possible upside push.
Faibik also identified the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $87.5K as key resistance. A breakout above this level, he noted, could pressure short sellers and trigger further upside.
Profit-Taking Rises as Old BTC Moves On-Chain
On-chain metrics also reflect behavioral shifts. Analyst Ali Martinez said long-term holders moved over 1,058 BTC on Apr. 3. That transfer, totaling over $90 million at current prices, signals early signs of profit-taking.
“When older coins start moving, it often marks a transition in market sentiment,” Ali said in his post. Historically, such movements foreshadow periods of increased volatility, particularly near local tops.
While not conclusive, this aligns with previous cycles where long-term holders cashed out as Bitcoin approached late-stage gains.
Wild Forecasts Fuel Retail Buzz as Bitcoin Eyes $87K
As technical and on-chain signals mature, price forecasts from crypto influencers are ramping up. Trader 0xNobler claimed on X that a “parabolic bull run” would start on Apr. 5, with a $200,000 BTC target and 100x altcoin rallies in “3 weeks.”
While this view drew attention, other traders took a more cautious stance. Altcoin Sherpa said he exited active positions around $83,000 and is “just waiting” for a clearer trend to form.
The divergence in trader sentiment comes as Bitcoin trades just below a potential breakout zone, increasing the odds of short-term volatility.