Market Structure Still Favors Bitcoin as Altcoins Struggle to Regain Momentum
NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Altcoin season has not yet arrived, but market participants are watching closely as Bitcoin falters under global pressure. After peaking near $110,000 in early 2025, Bitcoin has pulled back to nearly $84,000 as of April 1, amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war fears.
President Donald Trump’s recent U.S. tariff announcements targeting Chinese and Mexican imports have triggered a broader market sell-off, with crypto markets absorbing much of the blow.
While Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, altcoins have struggled to gain traction. Historically, altcoin season begins when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies, pushing their prices higher relative to BTC. However, the current market structure suggests that capital remains risk-averse.
Investors appear to be positioning defensively, opting for the relative safety of Bitcoin while waiting for a clearer signal to rotate into altcoins.
Market Structure Still Favors Bitcoin as Altcoins Struggle to Regain Momentum
Bitcoin dominance sits at 62.3% and continues to climb.
The metric reflects the proportion of total market capitalization captured by Bitcoin. A rising dominance suggests investors are allocating capital toward Bitcoin rather than alternative tokens. Since early Feb. 2025, dominance has maintained a clear uptrend, with consistently higher lows and strong volume support. This trend shows no signs of slowing, reinforcing that capital rotation into altcoins has not yet started.
Ethereum’s relative weakness adds further weight to this outlook. The ETH/BTC pair has extended its multi-month downtrend, recently trading near 0.022 BTC. Ethereum, typically the first altcoin to rally in a new cycle, has failed to hold any upside momentum against Bitcoin. It continues to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating that market confidence in ETH leadership is lacking.
Ethereum remains unlikely to ignite broader altcoin momentum without a breakout above the trendline resistance.
Total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) has weakened sharply since topping near $1.6 trillion in December. It now trades closer to $1 trillion, showing a prolonged consolidation with falling volume. The same behavior appears in TOTAL3, which excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Market capitalization has dropped to roughly $780 billion, erasing much of its Q4 2024 gains. The decline suggests limited investor appetite for smaller-cap tokens. There is no technical evidence yet that altcoins are preparing for a rally. Price structures remain corrective, volume trends are weak, and dominance flows favor Bitcoin. Unless Bitcoin dominance reverses and ETH/BTC regains strength, the market remains firmly in Bitcoin’s control. Altcoin season, for now, appears postponed.
On-Chain Activity Has Nothing For Bulls Waiting For Altcoin Season
Recent on-chain metrics reflect a market still operating under cautious conditions. USDT net transfer volume, tracked across all exchanges, shows a consistent pattern of outflows throughout March. Multiple days recorded red bars exceeding $250 million, with the most aggressive outflows nearing $1 billion in a single day.
These sustained removals of Tether from exchanges suggest that investors have been exiting risk positions or transferring capital to private wallets. Rather than signaling imminent market entry, these movements point to a reduction in active trading.
Although a brief inflow spike emerged at the end of March, it remains isolated and does not offset the broader outflow trend. In altcoin-led bull phases, USDT floods exchanges as investors prepare to buy higher-risk assets. The absence of sustained inflows weakens the case for an upcoming altcoin season.
USDC data from CryptoQuant shows a similar sentiment shift. Exchange reserves for USDC have fallen to nearly $5.2 billion, down sharply from mid-March levels. This decline may indicate redemptions or redeployments, but it likely reflects a continued wait-and-see approach without corresponding inflows into altcoins or rising altcoin volumes.
Together, these metrics show no strong capital rotation forming in favor of altcoins. While some capital may be moving off exchanges for strategic reallocation, the overall signal from stablecoin activity is defensive. Until these flows reverse and align with technical breakouts, altcoin season remains unlikely in the short term.