Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed above $120,500 on Aug. 11
Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed above $120,500 on Aug. 11, moving closer to retesting its record high after a strong rebound over the past week.
However, bearish pressure near the upper levels could force bulls to wait for the BTC price to make a new high. The 20-day EMA (red wave) might be a key support level in case of a correction.
The rally followed a period of reduced profit-taking by long-term holders and a noticeable shift in market structure from whale-driven activity to increased retail participation. Recent on-chain and futures market data highlight this changing dynamic, setting the stage for a potentially decisive move in the coming sessions.
Long-Term Holder Selling Cools as Retail Traders Take the Wheel
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that profit realization by Bitcoin’s long-term holders slowed markedly in Aug. 2025. This was following an exceptional July run in which daily realized profits consistently exceeded $1 billion.
That surge marked one of the most significant profit-taking phases in Bitcoin’s history, driven largely by older coins—some held for more than a decade—entering the market. The pullback in August suggests that much of the heavy distribution from these cohorts has already occurred. It also eases persistent sell-side pressure and potentially creates a more balanced environment for price discovery.
While this slowdown in realized profits indicates reduced selling from seasoned holders, it also aligns with a notable change in market composition captured by CryptoQuant data.
Where Are the Whales?
Analysis of Bitcoin futures order sizes shows that the market has transitioned from being whale-dominated earlier in the year to one increasingly influenced by retail-sized orders. In late 2024 and early 2025, large whale orders—both from big and small whales—were prevalent. They also coincided with strong bullish rallies. However, recent weeks have seen an increase in smaller, retail-level order clusters, while whale participation has diminished.
The shift provides context for the Glassnode findings. The reduced presence of large institutional or long-term whale sellers in August is not necessarily a sign of renewed accumulation, but rather a pause in distribution. Retail traders now occupy a larger share of the market. This is a condition that, historically, can sustain rallies in the short term, but has also preceded local tops if not supported by fresh institutional inflows.
The combined data points to a market where the immediate supply overhang from long-term holders has diminished. However, the sustainability of further gains may hinge on whether whales return to the market as active buyers rather than passive holders.
Traders Eye Higher BTC Targets, But Gaps and Retests Remain in Play
The market structure outlined by on-chain and futures data is also reflected in recent chart-based projections from several analysts.
Independent analyst Crypto Fella highlighted the BTC USD pair’s recent breakout above its previous record near the $115,000–$116,000 zone, followed by a clean retest that has so far held as support. The price is now approaching the $123,000 area. This structure implies that momentum could carry it beyond the July peak if buyers maintain control.
Another X-based analyst, Merlijn The Trader, interpreted the same advance through a Wyckoff-style framework. His daily chart segmented recent action into three phases: accumulation, a short-lived manipulation period marked by a downside fake-out, and an ongoing distribution phase.
The structure targeted continued strength toward the $128,000–$130,000 range. This reinforces the view that Bitcoin has shifted out of consolidation into a faster markup stage.
Crypto trader and angel investor Cyclop offered a more measured scenario. Cyclops focused on CME Bitcoin futures at the hourly scale. He identified an unfilled gap between roughly $117,000 and $118,000, projecting a short-term retracement into this zone before extending the rally toward $126,000. This pathway accounts for near-term volatility and emphasizes filling untested technical levels before pushing higher.
Despite differences in short-term sequencing, all three analysts lean bullish. This aligns with the reduced selling from long-term holders and increased retail activity. Whether targets above $125,000 are sustained will likely hinge on the return of institutional buying during this leg.