The Pi Cycle Top Indicator
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of the more historically reliable market timing tools for Ethereum, and it is now hinting at a potential local peak near $5,300. This model compares two moving averages: the 111-day moving average and twice the 350-day moving average. In earlier market cycles, including the rapid appreciation phases of 2016–2018 and 2020–2021, Ethereum’s price surged above the 2x350DMA line during aggressive bull runs. Each time, this crossover aligned closely with a significant local or cycle top, marking areas where momentum reached unsustainable levels in the short term.
Currently, Ethereum’s price has once again moved into this historically important zone. The positioning of the 111DMA relative to the 2x350DMA mirrors the formations seen in the months leading to those earlier tops. While the indicator does not necessarily signal an immediate reversal, it suggests that the market is in a late-stage bullish phase where large price advances can quickly transition into sharp pullbacks. The fact that this setup is unfolding alongside a strong macro crypto rally adds weight to the signal, as it reflects broad speculative enthusiasm.
Another factor making this Pi Cycle event notable is the changing structure of market participation. Unlike in prior cycles, where retail traders dominated, Ethereum now sees far greater involvement from institutional investors. These larger players often deploy capital more strategically and have longer holding horizons, which can dampen volatility. As a result, even if the Pi Cycle is signaling a top zone, the climb toward $5,300 and any subsequent correction could be more measured than the abrupt selloffs of earlier years.
Percent Supply in Profit Nears Extreme Levels
Glassnode data shows Ethereum’s Percent Supply in Profit approaching the 100% mark, a level historically linked to local peaks. This metric calculates the percentage of circulating ETH that is valued above the holder’s cost basis. When it climbs into the upper 90% range, it indicates that nearly every market participant is sitting on unrealized gains. Such periods tend to encourage profit-taking, which can slow momentum or trigger retracements. In past cycles, these peaks in profitability have lined up closely with market tops, as broad holder profitability leaves little room for further buying driven by short-term gain potential.
In the current market, the rapid climb in Percent Supply in Profit reflects Ethereum’s strong recovery from its lows. This move has brought a large share of long-term holders back into profitable positions, while also putting recent buyers deep in the green. Historically, markets in such conditions face a psychological turning point — the temptation to lock in profits intensifies. While not every rally ends when this metric peaks, the probability of a correction rises, especially when combined with other technical and sentiment indicators suggesting late-stage bullishness.
It is worth noting that Ethereum’s profitability levels have reached these extremes before without an immediate reversal, particularly in times of heavy inflows from new capital. However, when paired with the Pi Cycle crossover and rising RSI levels, this data point adds another layer of caution. High profitability may also signal that the current upward phase is mature, with fewer undervalued coins left to attract aggressive new buyers. The broader takeaway is that extreme profitability often precedes phases of consolidation or correction.
RSI Nears Overbought Territory
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used momentum indicator that helps identify overbought and oversold market conditions. For Ethereum, the RSI is now approaching the 70 mark, the traditional threshold for overbought territory. In earlier bull markets, Ethereum’s RSI has exceeded this level and, in extreme cases, climbed past 90 before momentum waned. This historical context shows that a high RSI reading does not automatically mean a reversal is imminent, but it does suggest that upside moves may become harder to sustain without a pullback or period of consolidation.
At present, Ethereum’s rising RSI reflects the strength of its recent rally, which has been fueled by both spot demand and growing institutional participation. The indicator shows that buyers have been consistently pushing price higher over the short and medium term. In technical terms, this type of persistent strength can keep RSI elevated for extended periods, as seen in earlier parabolic runs. However, it also indicates that any sudden shift in sentiment could lead to rapid declines, as overextended momentum leaves less room for error.
One key difference in the current cycle is the changing composition of market participants. Institutions and large-scale investors tend to manage risk differently from retail traders, often layering in positions over time rather than chasing short-term breakouts. This behavior can keep RSI elevated without the same blow-off top dynamics seen in retail-driven markets. Even so, when the indicator aligns with other warning signs — such as the Pi Cycle crossover and extreme Percent Supply in Profit readings — it becomes part of a broader technical picture that suggests Ethereum could be nearing a short-term top around the $5,300 level.