Crypto markets are approaching a decisive moment.
Many traders are asking whether the upcoming year could bring an altseason strong enough to create a new batch of millionaires. Altseason refers to the period when altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—outperform Bitcoin in price growth and market share. When examining historical cycles, adoption trends, on-chain data, and macro conditions, certain signs indicate that the foundations for such a rally are forming.
Bitcoin typically leads every market cycle.
Its share of the overall crypto market, known as Bitcoin dominance, rises first as investors move into the most established coin. When that dominance peaks and begins to decline, capital often flows into altcoins such as Ethereum, Solana, or XRP. Concurrently, the combined market capitalization of altcoins, tracked by the TOTAL2 index, starts to climb. Together, a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a rise in TOTAL2 mark the beginning of an altseason.
Halving History Points to Altseason Window in 2025
There have been only two clear global altseasons. The first began in March 2017, eight months after the 2016 Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin dominance fell from 96% to 36% in under a year. During this 310-day period, the TOTAL2 index grew by more than 500 times to $470 billion.
The second came after the May 2020 Bitcoin halving. Over 309 days, the TOTAL2 index rose from $225 billion to nearly $1.5 trillion, peaking in November 2021. Both events closely followed halvings. These are the moments when the reward for mining Bitcoin was cut in half, reducing new supply. These circumstances historically fueled broader rallies.
After the most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024, the market now finds itself in the same post-halving window that gave rise to previous altseasons.
TradingView data shows Bitcoin dominance near 61.6%, down slightly from its 2025 peak of about 63%.
Historical Altseason Patterns
In past cycles, altseasons began once dominance rolled over from such peaks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dominance is near 41, suggesting weakening momentum. The RSI is a measure of market strength, where levels above 70 often signal overbought conditions and below 30 signal oversold. If dominance continues to fall below 60%, it