On May 1, 2025, the XRP to USD weekly chart shows the formation of a falling wedge pattern.
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern where price action contracts between two downward-sloping trendlines, often signaling an upcoming breakout to the upside.
In this case, XRP trades within narrowing lower highs and lower lows. The volume continues to decline during this consolidation, which aligns with standard wedge behavior. Additionally, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the pattern, providing dynamic support.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, sits at 53.20. The RSI’s neutral level, paired with the pattern’s compression, suggests the market builds pressure ahead of a breakout. If the breakout confirms, the projected target sits near $4.32, which marks a 95% increase from the wedge’s base.
This setup places XRP in a strong technical position as long as it stays above the lower wedge boundary and the 50-week EMA.
Analysts Eye XRP Surge as Falling Wedge Breakout Aligns With Elliott Wave Pattern
Several market analysts remain confident in XRP’s long-term potential, despite its current consolidation phase. They point to technical setups that suggest the altcoin may be building momentum for a major breakout.
Well-known trader Dark Defender said that the ongoing price movement fits within a larger Elliott Wave structure. According to him, the current correction does not mark weakness but instead represents a natural pause within a broader bullish cycle. As per the Elliott Wave theory—which tracks investor psychology in waves of market optimism and pessimism—XRP may still have more upside left. He claimed XRP will “continue its climb to the top” once the correction ends.
Another analyst, Allincrypto, also issued a bullish projection. He believes XRP is preparing for a breakout from the falling wedge formation visible on the higher timeframes. Based on his chart analysis, he expects the token to reach $19.27 if the pattern completes successfully. His target suggests a steep upward move, driven by technical momentum and pattern symmetry rather than short-term hype.
Approval Odds Jump to 85% After SEC Leadership Shift
The chances of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting approved in 2025 have climbed sharply. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts now say there is an 85% likelihood that one or more XRP ETFs will get the green light, thanks to a recent leadership change at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This marks a clear jump from the 65% approval odds they reported just over two months ago.
The list of applicants includes well-known names like Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin Templeton. These firms have filed proposals for spot XRP ETFs, which are now under active review by the SEC. Notably, on April 29, the SEC delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s application, pushing the next review deadline to June 17.
Meanwhile, the prediction market Polymarket shows a similar shift in sentiment. As of now, traders place the odds of XRP ETF approval by Dec. 31 at 80%. That figure has surged by 17% in just one week, rising from 63% on April 23. This sharp swing signals growing investor confidence in a positive outcome.
If approved, these XRP ETFs could attract institutional capital and strengthen market demand. While the final timeline is still uncertain, momentum is clearly building in favor of XRP’s mainstream adoption.