NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin (BTC) ended the first quarter of 2025 with an 11.7% loss, its worst start to a year since 2015, according to NYDIG Research.
As the new quarter begins, traders are watching key levels and macro developments closely, with volatility back on the table. This marks BTC’s 12th place out of the past 15 first-quarter performances. Only the 2015 Q1 downturn fared worse, when the market was still reeling from the collapse of Mt. Gox and the 2013 bull cycle peak.
Tariffs and Sell-Offs Cloud Crypto Outlook
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, announced last week, triggered a brutal equities sell-off. The U.S. stock market lost $5.4 trillion in value in just two sessions, pushing the S&P 500 to its lowest in 11 months. The Nasdaq 100 also entered bear market territory.
The crypto market, which initially appeared decoupled, has begun to feel the weight. While BTC outperformed during the initial shock, the weekend saw flat movement, with no clear signal on direction.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes noted the market’s indecision. “It’s a fog of war for now,” he said, citing the lack of weekend trend and pointing to the opening of U.S. futures on Monday as a key moment.
BTC Nears Support as Traders Sound Caution
Technical analysts are watching $77,500 closely. Jesse Colombo flagged it as a “critical support level” and warned that failure could spark a sharp decline.
CrediBULL Crypto echoed the concern. “We need to hold here or else 69-74k officially comes into play,” he posted. He added that Ethereum (ETH) and most altcoins have struggled to hold their ranges, indicating broader market fragility.
“If BTC breaks down, ETH likely revisits sub-$1,800,” he added, highlighting an orange zone of interest below current levels. For long-term spot entries, he pointed to this zone as a possible accumulation range—but not without caution.
Q1 Declines Often Precede Larger Trends
Historically, Q1 losses in BTC have sent mixed signals. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 9.4% in the first quarter but rallied over 300% by year-end. However, in 2014, 2018, and 2022—other years with negative Q1 returns—Bitcoin ended the year lower. NYDIG noted these periods coincided with the ends of previous bull cycles.
This year’s backdrop complicates things. While the Trump administration has pulled back regulatory lawsuits against crypto firms and offered some clarity, the macro picture remains murky. Rising recession risks and tighter monetary policy reduce the chances of a broad crypto rally in the short term.
Meanwhile, sentiment on exchanges shows mixed signals. Ali Martinez pointed out that 91,900 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. That could suggest long-term confidence—or a shift toward private custody amid fear of market instability.
BTC Volatility Returns as New Quarter Begins
As the market opened Monday, crypto participants showed signs of defensive positioning. Although BTC held above $70,000 over the weekend, price action remains indecisive. With equities still under pressure, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets could test its resilience this week.
Traders now face a technical and psychological battleground. If $77,500 fails, attention will shift to the $69,000–$74,000 zone. Below that, some traders are eyeing a deeper reset unless buyers step in fast.
And with tightening macro conditions, the next few sessions could set the tone for Q2. For now, BTC trades in a fragile range, with sentiment turning cautious after its worst Q1 in 10 years.