YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) —
Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared a chart on April 10 suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent decline is likely a technical retest of a major bullish pattern. He pointed to the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) structure, which completed in November 2024, marking a breakout above the $44,000–$45,000 neckline.
This chart pattern, known for indicating trend reversals, formed after a prolonged bear market and signaled the beginning of Bitcoin’s parabolic move. From the November 2022 low of around $15,600, Bitcoin surged by over 460%, topping out near $73,800 in March 2024. The breakout was followed by consistent gains along a rising trendline, which Brandt now believes is under threat.
He said BTC is retesting the $45K–$48K neckline, a zone that previously served as resistance and support. Retests of such key zones are common in technical analysis, often validating the strength of the pattern if buyers return.
However, Brandt flagged a critical concern: Bitcoin has broken its parabolic advance, which had guided the rally since late 2022. Parabolic trends suggest accelerated price movement within a narrowing curve. Breaking this pattern can often mean the market is losing momentum or entering consolidation.
In Brandt’s words, “Half of one, six of another,” he expressed the indecision — the market is still technically within a bullish framework but has also violated one of its strongest uptrend indicators. The chart shows a double top at $73.8K–$74K, followed by a bearish weekly candle that triggered the drop.
Brandt’s chart outlines multiple bullish continuation patterns before the parabolic climb, including rectangles, flags, and a double cross, all of which supported the rally toward all-time highs. But now, Bitcoin is trading near $82,850, just below the 18-week weighted moving average (WMA) at $88,952, and also under the 8-week simple moving average (SMA) at $85,473.
The test of this trendline support and the neckline zone could determine whether the broader uptrend resumes or deeper losses follow. Brandt did not issue a clear forecast but highlighted that this is a crucial technical juncture for Bitcoin.
Heavy Selling Pressure at Key Support Zone Raises Breakdown Risks
While some traders view the pullback as a retest, the latest technical update from analyst @PnFChart1986 signals growing bearish momentum. In a post shared on April 10, he warned that Bitcoin is approaching a major trendline support, established from the early 2023 lows near $16,000. This trendline has held for over 15 months and supported Bitcoin’s rise toward the $73,800 high.
The point-and-figure chart shows Bitcoin under active selling pressure, with larger blocks of ‘O’ columns replacing the earlier bullish ‘X’ runs. As the price dipped toward $82,000, volume spiked. The Volume MA reached 307,917 BTC, while current daily volume was slightly lower at 288,115 BTC, suggesting sellers are offloading into thinning demand.
At the same time, the ADX (Average Directional Index) printed 27.24, indicating a strengthening trend — in this case, downward. The ATR (Average True Range) sits at 9,542, highlighting increased volatility. When paired with falling prices and weak demand, this environment points to possible breakdown if Bitcoin loses the support line.
The analyst noted that buying interest is weak or nearly absent, meaning few participants are willing to defend current levels. His recommendation was direct: “Now is not the time to open long positions.” He advised waiting for buying strength or support confirmation before acting.
ETF Outflows Extend Despite Isolated Inflows
While Brandt sees the decline as a technical retest, institutional flow data reflects persistent weakness. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows for six consecutive trading days, with April 9, 2025, marking another net outflow of $127.2 million, according to the table.
The biggest single-day exit came from Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw $89.7 million in outflows. Grayscale’s GBTC, long known for its dominance in redemptions, lost $33.8 million on the same day. Other issuers like WisdomTree’s BTCW and VanEck’s HODL also posted minor losses. Only BlackRock’s IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB managed small inflows on April 9 — $0.0 million and $6.7 million, respectively — which failed to offset the broader exit trend.
Total outflows over the first nine days of April now exceed $840 million, based on the day-by-day cumulative losses visible in the chart. Notably, the largest single-day outflow occurred on April 8, when the market saw a staggering $326.3 million leave ETF products, led by IBIT’s $252.9 million drop. This sustained bleed highlights growing investor caution as Bitcoin struggles below the $88,000 resistance zone outlined in Brandt’s chart. With CPI data pressuring risk assets and ETF flows still negative, sentiment remains fragile despite technical support levels.
Binance Bitcoin Reserves Surge by $1.82B Ahead of March CPI Data
Bitcoin reserves on Binance surged ahead of the March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, signaling increased trader activity. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maarten Regterschot, Binance’s BTC reserves rose by 22,106 BTC over 12 days, reaching a total of 590,874 BTC as of April 9. At the time, this stockpile was valued at approximately $1.82 billion.
“This shows a strong acceleration in BTC inflows to Binance,” Regterschot stated. He noted that this movement likely reflects investor reactions to macroeconomic uncertainty and the upcoming inflation report.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release March CPI data on April 10. Traders often move Bitcoin to exchanges before key macro events — sometimes to sell, other times to prepare for volatility. The broader context includes geopolitical shifts. On April 9, U.S. President Donald Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, except on Chinese imports. This contributed to a short-term BTC price rally.
Traders now await the CPI figure to gauge inflation trends. Some expect a sharp drop, possibly near 2.5%, while FactSet estimates a more modest 0.1% increase month-over-month.
Brandt’s view offers a more technical lens on the market. If his H&S retest thesis holds, BTC could stabilize and resume its uptrend. However, ETF outflows, weak demand, and macro headwinds continue to pressure Bitcoin’s support zones. The coming days will likely determine whether the H&S neckline holds or gives way to deeper losses.