YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — US President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% universal import tariff triggered immediate market reactions, increasing global economic tensions and impacting both traditional and crypto markets.
China faces tariffs as high as 54% under the new policy, which the administration calls “Liberation Day.” The move is intended to protect U.S. industries but has raised fears of a prolonged trade war and global economic slowdown.
Markets reacted sharply. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 4%, while Dow Jones futures dropped more than 1,000 points. Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000, then pulled back and now trades around $83,000, facing pressure from rising macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin at Risk of Drop as Key Support and RSI Turn Bearish
Bitcoin is now trading near its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,619, a level that has held as support since early 2023. The current price is around $83,644, just above this key zone. If Bitcoin closes below the 50-week EMA, it could move lower toward the 200-week EMA near $45,623. That would be a drop of about 40% from the current price.
The chart shows that Bitcoin has already broken below a rising trendline that started in late 2022. This break suggests that the price structure is weakening. In past cycles, when this type of support was lost, Bitcoin often dropped to the 200-week EMA before finding support again.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 47.79, which is under the neutral 50 line. This shows that momentum is turning negative. The RSI’s moving average is still higher at 57.64, showing a clear shift in direction. If the RSI stays below 50, the price may keep falling.
President Trump’s Tariffs Spook Risk Assets
President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs has increased concerns about a potential U.S. recession. Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshinow reflect a probability of over 50% of an economic downturn this year, a notable rise from under 20% at the year’s beginning.
Analysts are divided on the implications of these tariffs.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research suggests that a recession could reinforce U.S. market dominance despite fears of low growth and a $33 trillion risk to global trade. He advises global portfolio managers to prioritize U.S. equities, citing factors like full employment and energy independence.
Conversely, economist Stephen Miller estimates a better-than-50% chance of a global recession in 2025, highlighting concerns over stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s.
These recession signals increase short-term downside risks for crypto markets. Investors often move out of volatile assets like Bitcoin during economic uncertainty.